The math at 1/2 Kelly:
Even with a verified 55% win rate and 2:1 R:R, this sizing produces approximately 50% maximum drawdowns over time. Math says so — it's not avoidable at this fraction.
Most traders cannot psychologically hold through a 50% account drawdown. They panic-close, abandon their system, or revenge trade their way to a blown account.
Recommended only if you have:
- 100+ verified profitable trades on logged data
- Edge confirmed across multiple market conditions
- Demonstrated capacity to hold through 50% drawdowns without panic
- Capital you can afford to lose half of without affecting your life
If you're not sure whether you meet all four, pick 1/4 Kelly. You'll compound just fine and sleep at night.